Current 304 stainless steel tube spot volume surged, inventory than expected decline in these two rally driver still exists, and environmental protection to leak and part of the blast furnace overterm service can inhibit the release of 304 stainless steel tube production, the price is still in a rebound in the process.

The 304 stainless steel tube has bottomed out since the end of march, and the current rebound is due to a drop in volume and inventory overestimate, which has not weakened.In addition, the production of 304 stainless steel tubes has been released, and the current price is still in the recovery channel. Volume and inventory exceeded expectations.

After the Spring Festival, the stock of the steel mills and the 304 stainless steel tubes have accumulated more than the market expected.From inventory changes throughout the years, after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, with migrant workers gradually returned to the city, the spot demand better, 304 stainless steel pipe in inventory and steel into the channel, but in 2018, after the Spring Festival, the market did not see inventories accelerated decline.

The 304 stainless steel tube market began to question the demand of the peak season in mid-march, and combined with the macro de-leverage background, it was deemed that the demand was highly likely to be absent.From the production data, in March, 304 stainless steel tube industry winter production did not result in the decline of steel production, the iron limit steel is more prominent.From January to March 2018, the production of crude steel is lower than that of 2017, although the production of raw iron is lower than that in 2017.Production of 304 stainless steel tubes increased, demand fell, inventory continued to rise, and 304 stainless steel tube market mentality deteriorated, leading to a sharp decline in futures.

However, after the middle of march, the futures began to stabilize and rebound, and we believe that the core driving force of the price is 304 stainless steel pipe transaction volume and inventory drop exceeded expectations.Since mid-march, the daily turnover of building materials nationwide has remained above 200,000 tons.In the last two years, similar intensive transactions have occurred in two periods, from march to April of 2016 and from October to mid-december of 2017.

Looking back on the inventory change characteristics between march and April of 2016 and from October to December of 2017, the inventory characteristics of march to April 2016 are low in the inventory base of 304 stainless steel tubes after the Spring Festival, and the inventory keeps falling after the holiday.The inventory characteristics of October to December 2017 are characterized by the rapid decline of inventory, and the inventory of 304 stainless steel tubes is lower than that of the previous year.

From the price fluctuation of 304 stainless steel tubes, the high volume and rapid decline of inventory led to a sharp increase in prices.From the current spot, the volume of the transaction and the inventory overestimate has not ended, the rebound drive still exists.Volume continues to drive the inventory decline rapidly and rare in the past five weeks steel inventories and 304 stainless steel tube social inventories declined, according to the lunar calendar calculation has been substantially below the same period last year, according to the Gregorian calendar calculation has been close to the same period last year.

Environmental limits affect production release.

The 304 stainless steel tube market expects a gradual increase in supply as prices rebound, but our research shows that supply recovery may be far less than expected.There are two main reasons for this. On the one hand, environmental protection leads to more maintenance of steel mills in jiangsu and anhui provinces, which directly affects the supply of 304 stainless steel tubes in eastern China.

From the part of the blast furnace operation, since 2017, some steel mills in the condition of the blast furnace overterm service, must repair, which makes the time period from the end of April to early may, the steel production release.

In conclusion, stainless steel spot supermarket network analysis, the current 304 stainless steel tube to clinch a deal last, inventory than expected decline in these two volumes rebound driven still exists, and environmental protection to leak and part of the blast furnace overterm service in steel plant maintenance, production increase, inhibit the release of production, 304 stainless steel pipe prices rebound is still in the channel.