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The stainless steel pipe market has been rising in August

The stainless steel pipe market has been rising in August. At present, stainless steel pipe manufacturers are being attacked by environmental protection.

With a wave of growth in August, finished products - threads, seamless steel pipes, profiles, etc. have basically passed the 4,000 mark, and profits are rising steadily, ranging from 3-500 to more than 1,000.But the reality is that the dividend of profits goes into the pockets of steel mills.And the traders' pockets are still empty, so they have buried a heavy sadness in the market after the boom.For both "true" and "empty", but it is undeniable that the steel industry has been in the last year, 3000, on the basis of created the record within five years, 4000 price may be high, at least from the point of view of the stainless seamless steel pipe market situation, can also be higher.


The main driving force behind the current market is the continuous environmental protection. The closed steel mills are no longer one of them, which has become the normal situation of the industry.Intuitively, it reduces production capacity and output, and reduces supply.In the concept of soaring prices, there will often be money to buy desired products, not ugly out, high prices are just a market reflection of the real phenomenon.Go to the rebar again, strong trend, let you incredible, has become the industry leader;All the funds entered the rebar market to participate in the game, and the amount of rebar futures holdings also constantly broke the historical record.For example, "hebei province heavy pollution weather response and heating season miaofeng production special implementation plan", which clearly points out that in the heating season, shijiazhuang, handan, tangshan and other places steel production is limited by 50%., the policy impetus is very strong, in the last two years suppressed by the environmental protection, the domestic steel market already is in the midst of tight balance between supply and demand situation, the domestic prices of hong kong-listed is also easy to rise to fall, under the background of the change of supply and demand, price nature became the bellwether.To be sure, as long as the state's determination to reduce production capacity remains unchanged, the steel market remains at a high level of 4000, which will become the commodity market as a favored product in the later period. Why should I dare to say that it can go up by several hundred in September?Stainless steel seamless steel tube industry has reached a high level, is it going to crash?

First, the time point - "gold nine silver ten" I don't believe, the really high season has become the low season.According to the previous experience, the weak season over DORA rise, has overdrawn the peak season to pull up the space, so that the peak season unchanged expectations.But have not been true to activate the hong kong-listed demand this year, particularly in manufacturing, real estate and other industries, which has been tepid, but the market will give the peak season of chips, such as to stimulate sales of household appliances, automotive and real estate, so as to lead the steel market into demand season.In addition, the GDP performance of the first and second quarters exceeded expectations, and there is no reason not to believe that the future third and fourth quarters will still be around 6.7%.【 if from the point of economic growth, in recent years of China's economic growth in the growing. In the past eight quarters, China's GDP growth is basically stable operation of between 6.7% and 6.9%. China's economic growth has become increasingly stable, this is not an accidental phenomenon, according to the internal regularity and inertia, the second half of China's economy can continue stable overall situation."Moreover, according to the data, China's domestic steel social inventory and steel plant inventory are at a low level, indicating that domestic steel production enterprises have good demand and smooth delivery.

Second, the production capacity indicators are terminated early -- the production of cardiac agents.Look from the first half of the year to capacity, has completed nearly 80% of the task, forecast in October 9 - node is mainly to production time, many provinces, such as hebei, shandong and other specified objectives will be finished ahead of years, must be area in November and December overfulfilled targets.Another large and intensive shutdown is expected in September and October, which is the key to completing or exceeding the task of capacity reduction this year.In 2016, for example, by the end of October, steel had already fulfilled its annual target of 45 million tons of capacity reduction ahead of schedule.It is conceivable that 2017 will be no exception.At that time, once overfulfilled, it is bound to bring more positive influence to the market procurement. Coupled with the boost of the peak season demand, the whole steel market is still regarded as the best investment object in September and October.


Third, bet on the price recovery space - although the finished products have broken 4000, but the blank is still around 3000;Compared with last year, the price has doubled from over 1000 to over 3000 in 2016.The room for growth this year is only 600-1000, not very prominent.Therefore, if the fundamentals of the whole steel are close to a thousand yuan or more, it is still in line with expectations.Therefore, although the market will be volatile, but it needs time to be polished, September to October is the best period of steel market impact high level, is also the key to establish this year's seamless steel market high price.


Overall, stainless steel pipe season may have been lower risk in September, but I still give priority to with bullish, finished product material edged up to 2000, in 5000, is not impossible, please wait and see!





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